Let's take a look at some of the biggest story lines...
1.) The turnover battle. The Thunder have done an incredible job taking care of the ball so far in this post-season, but have not yet faced a defense like the Heat pose. This Miami team is a defensive juggernaut, and if they are able to force Westbrook into mistakes by speeding him up, that could be a deciding factor. On the other hand, Miami at times tends to throw sloppy passes. They turn the ball over more than a championship team should, so they will need to keep their turnovers to a minimum. Both teams punish you on points off turnovers, so whoever wins the turnover battle will have a big advantage.
2.) Role players. This is a huge advantage for the Thunder. Sixth-man of the year James Harden plays starter's minutes and is averaging 17.6 points a game for the Thunder. Thabo Sefolosha is a great defender, and will be a factor on defense. Serge Ibaka is a rim-protector who rebounds well, and blocks shots. If he can force the Heat to shoot more outside shots, that will be key. Perkins' toughness down low, and Fisher's leadership will also be key. On the flip side, the Heat's role players will HAVE to step up if Miami wants to win this series. That means Chalmers, Cole, Battier, Haslem, and Miller have to play well. One or two of those will have to step up in a big way. If Miller and Battier can be consistent with their shot, and Chalmers can attack the defense, that will be a vital key to success.
3.) Russel Westbrook. Simple. Did you see Rondo slice and dice the Heat defense last series? Imagine that, with a faster, more accurate-shooting, stronger Westbrook. And whom, do you ask, will be guarding him? Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole. Uh-oh. With Wade most likely on Harden, and LeBron on Durant, that leaves a huge mismatch with Westbrook. He needs to continue to be aggressive, but not TOO aggressive where he is forcing shots and turning the ball over. Westbrook is the key, and I think he knows it. He knows he could put the Thunder over the top. He just has to go out there and do it.
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Prediction: Thunder win in 7 games. It will be a series for the ages, two great teams battling it out on the big stage. This will not be the last time we see these teams in the finals. Maybe even as soon as next year. So get used to this. This loss will hurt LeBron James, but NOT his legacy. They will not lose because of him. I am sure of it. He is ready to win this year. And I am scared of betting against him. His will to win, and out-of-this-world talent is incredible. And he will not be losing to a better player in Durant. He will simply do all he can. but in the end, the Thunder will deny LeBron his ring, for his third straight Finals defeat.
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